The death of diesel? Or the future?

The place to discuss everything else..
NoDiscoSport
Posts: 472
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:57 am
Has thanked: 13 times
Been thanked: 26 times

Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by NoDiscoSport » Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:55 pm

Barnsh wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:29 am
Bag a bargain time.
I tried carwow etc. recently and if anything the discounts seem to have gone down from where they were 4 months ago...

Straight discounting runs counter to the premium price business model but JLR costs are so high just now that the business is barely scraping a profit. Something clearly needs to be done quickly. However, it's likely that they saw this coming and decided to sell the acres of unwanted cars to themselves through a handful of subsidiaries specifically set up in advance with half-hearted, faux marketing and web sites that look vaguely like real businesses. In the near term this helps the main business enormously by masking the reduced demand for cars. In the fullness of time the subsidaries can dispose of their unwanted stock of "used" JLR cars and any P&L red ink can be blamed on market conditions and timing. If necessary, loss-making businesses can be quietly folded as insolvent. The web-sites would need to look like those of Carpe subscription rentals and Liquid car hire (InMotion Ventures is believed to be the holding company for both enterprises):

Carpe (needs Edge/Mozilla/Chrome etc on Windows)
Liquid Car Rental (We deliver and collect anywhere within central London!)
InMotion Ventures
17MY DS150PS 6 speed manual. Gone. Not of satisfactory quality. Not as described.


Barnsh
Posts: 6046
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 5:20 pm
Location: South East
Has thanked: 38 times
Been thanked: 42 times

Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by Barnsh » Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:28 pm

NoDiscoSport wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:55 pm
Barnsh wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:29 am
Bag a bargain time.
I tried carwow etc. recently and if anything the discounts seem to have gone down from where they were 4 months ago...

Straight discounting runs counter to the premium price business model but JLR costs are so high just now that the business is barely scraping a profit. Something clearly needs to be done quickly. However, it's likely that they saw this coming and decided to sell the acres of unwanted cars to themselves through a handful of subsidiaries specifically set up in advance with half-hearted, faux marketing and web sites that look vaguely like real businesses. In the near term this helps the main business enormously by masking the reduced demand for cars. In the fullness of time the subsidaries can dispose of their unwanted stock of "used" JLR cars and any P&L red ink can be blamed on market conditions and timing. If necessary, loss-making businesses can be quietly folded as insolvent. The web-sites would need to look like those of Carpe subscription rentals and Liquid car hire (InMotion Ventures is believed to be the holding company for both enterprises):

Carpe (needs Edge/Mozilla/Chrome etc on Windows)
Liquid Car Rental (We deliver and collect anywhere within central London!)
InMotion Ventures
Yes they don’t want you to buy new off carwow , they want you to buy stock from dealers .
They will be running down current stock as much as possible off this month so probably won’t use carwow for those?
My18 FPace, BRG, R Sport, Auto. 18 way mem Seats, ActiveLED, PrivGlass, ICTP, blis, cooled gloves, spare.
MY17 HSE 180 gone
My16.5 DS 180 b pillar tick ~ rejected :oops:
My16 DS 180 ~ rejected :oops:


NoDiscoSport
Posts: 472
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:57 am
Has thanked: 13 times
Been thanked: 26 times

Diesel Sales Boom in Used Market

Post by NoDiscoSport » Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:31 pm

https://www.motortrader.com/motor-trader-news/automotive-news/diesel-sales-boom-used-car-market-16-08-2018 wrote:
Diesel car sales are booming in the used car market with transactions up 3.2% to 868,573 in the second quarter of 2018.
Petrol transactions fell -3.3% and demand for hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles grew by more than a quarter.

Total used car sales were flat (-0.4%), according to figures released by the SMMT. Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said the used car market was in “robust health” but flagged up a slowdown ahead. “With used sales so closely reflecting the new car market, some cooling is expected over the coming months.”

Ian Plummer, Auto Trader director, said: “The report of a flat market in Q2 will be welcomed by retailers, particularly following the moderate fall during the previous quarter. It demonstrates the resilience of the used car market and the opportunities available to retailers facing a more challenging new car sector.

“It’s particularly reassuring to see diesel perform so well. Despite the ongoing negative rhetoric surrounding the fuel debate and the government’s Road to Zero ambitions, consumers are clearly voting with their wallets. Their greater fuel efficiency makes them a more attractive alternative to budget conscious consumers, particularly when it comes to larger, family sized cars.

“However, on our marketplace there is a clear indication the popularity of diesel is waning. Last month diesel continued its long-term decline to hit 48% of all searches by fuel type.”
Probably a surge of second-hand activity caused by people "dumping" their unwanted diesels at knock-down prices or creative car dealers off-loading unwanted new stock - it's anybody's guess.
17MY DS150PS 6 speed manual. Gone. Not of satisfactory quality. Not as described.


Barnsh
Posts: 6046
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 5:20 pm
Location: South East
Has thanked: 38 times
Been thanked: 42 times

Re: Diesel Sales Boom in Used Market

Post by Barnsh » Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:37 pm

NoDiscoSport wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:31 pm
https://www.motortrader.com/motor-trader-news/automotive-news/diesel-sales-boom-used-car-market-16-08-2018 wrote:
Diesel car sales are booming in the used car market with transactions up 3.2% to 868,573 in the second quarter of 2018.
Petrol transactions fell -3.3% and demand for hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles grew by more than a quarter.

Total used car sales were flat (-0.4%), according to figures released by the SMMT. Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said the used car market was in “robust health” but flagged up a slowdown ahead. “With used sales so closely reflecting the new car market, some cooling is expected over the coming months.”

Ian Plummer, Auto Trader director, said: “The report of a flat market in Q2 will be welcomed by retailers, particularly following the moderate fall during the previous quarter. It demonstrates the resilience of the used car market and the opportunities available to retailers facing a more challenging new car sector.

“It’s particularly reassuring to see diesel perform so well. Despite the ongoing negative rhetoric surrounding the fuel debate and the government’s Road to Zero ambitions, consumers are clearly voting with their wallets. Their greater fuel efficiency makes them a more attractive alternative to budget conscious consumers, particularly when it comes to larger, family sized cars.

“However, on our marketplace there is a clear indication the popularity of diesel is waning. Last month diesel continued its long-term decline to hit 48% of all searches by fuel type.”
Probably a surge of second-hand activity caused by people "dumping" their unwanted diesels at knock-down prices or creative car dealers off-loading unwanted new stock - it's anybody's guess.
I’d agree forecourts are full of diesels at the moment , to shift them the price has to fall to stay underneath new incentives.
Plus of course secobd hand VED of the pre increase would mean my old DS is £135 a year compared to new VED of £450 so a saving of a further £2k plus over 5 years.
My DS was sold at a loss .
My18 FPace, BRG, R Sport, Auto. 18 way mem Seats, ActiveLED, PrivGlass, ICTP, blis, cooled gloves, spare.
MY17 HSE 180 gone
My16.5 DS 180 b pillar tick ~ rejected :oops:
My16 DS 180 ~ rejected :oops:


Chippy
Posts: 6000
Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2015 7:29 pm
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 6 times

Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by Chippy » Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:47 pm

Knowing car dealers they won’t be making a loss across the board even though individual deals may well be loss making.

Here in Germany huge quantities of “unwanted” Diesels are finding their way across the boarders yo the east of us.
Gone


Barnsh
Posts: 6046
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 5:20 pm
Location: South East
Has thanked: 38 times
Been thanked: 42 times

Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by Barnsh » Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:53 pm

Chippy wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:47 pm
Knowing car dealers they won’t be making a loss across the board even though individual deals may well be loss making.

Here in Germany huge quantities of “unwanted” Diesels are finding their way across the boarders yo the east of us.
Very true Chippy, it’s ironic EU jumps to control pollution , but it’s a world wide issue . We achieve little by pushing them over a few borders.
My18 FPace, BRG, R Sport, Auto. 18 way mem Seats, ActiveLED, PrivGlass, ICTP, blis, cooled gloves, spare.
MY17 HSE 180 gone
My16.5 DS 180 b pillar tick ~ rejected :oops:
My16 DS 180 ~ rejected :oops:


NoDiscoSport
Posts: 472
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:57 am
Has thanked: 13 times
Been thanked: 26 times

Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by NoDiscoSport » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:05 am

Latest comparison of EU sales between the "best selling" Evoque and DS on the one hand and their larger, more expensive sisters. The data is available at Car Sales Base* (please feed back any typos) and should be accurate as at14th September 2018. Small SUVs down 31%, others up nearly 24% year on year and now apparently the more important horses in the stable, obviously on revenue but, a crucial difference, now also on number of units shipped. I found these statistics astonishing, especially give what the senior management is currently saying in public.

Clearly DD and BB "Diesel Demonization" and "Beast of Brexit" select their victims with precision.

Sales 2018.PNG

*carsalesbase.com collect and publish sales data from Manufacturers, ANDC & JATO Dynamics
17MY DS150PS 6 speed manual. Gone. Not of satisfactory quality. Not as described.


Badgerface
Posts: 1305
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:38 pm
Location: Warwickshire
Has thanked: 7 times
Been thanked: 27 times

Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by Badgerface » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:11 am

:arrow: Awaits comment from Prof.Dr. Ralf Speth, hopefully with his business head on....... :lol:
MY17 HSE Luxury TD4 Ingenium 180ps - Aintree Green with Black Pack/ICTP/825w Meridian
MY13 HSE Luxury FL2 2.2 SD4 190ps - Baltic Blue with NO Oil dilution issues whatsoever!
MY12 HSE FL2. 2.2 SD4 190ps - Sumatra Black - Gone


NoDiscoSport
Posts: 472
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:57 am
Has thanked: 13 times
Been thanked: 26 times

Ratings Agency Downgrades JLR

Post by NoDiscoSport » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:23 pm

Fitch downgrades Jaguar Land Rover's outlook to negative; Affirms BB+ ratings

First Post

Mumbai: Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on the Tata-owned marquee auto firm Jaguar Land Rover, which is facing Brexit and currency headwinds, to negative from stable, but affirmed ratings on its debt at BB+.

After being the cash-cow for Tata Motors since 2010, JLR reported a net loss in the quarter to June 2018 as the rising public aversion to diesel cars and the increasing uncertainty over Brexit has only confounded the problem for the company. Earlier this week JLR had warned of production cuts and more problems if Brexit did not materialise the way it has been planned.

The agency cited a likely increase in JLR's negative cash flow in the next two years due to the falling profitability and the risks from Brexit as it sells around 20 percent of its volumes in the EU markets. JLR's product portfolio is also heavily biased towards diesel, which accounts for 90 percent of its sales in Europe, while sales of diesel powertrain are falling in Europe.

"The outlook change to negative from stable reflects our projections of further negative free cash flow in the next two years before gradually recovering to positive towards the end of year to March 2021," Fitch said in a note from London Friday.

The agency cited falling profitability as another key reason for the downgrade. Higher production and labour costs burdened JLR's profitability but margins were particularly impacted by the rising depreciation costs from recent investments.

"Adjusted pre-tax margin fell further in FY18 to 1.6 from 4.8 percent in FY17 and 12.4 percent in FY15 despite increasing revenue. Depreciation will continue to weigh on profitability but we expect this to be partly offset in the medium term by improvements in productivity and savings in the manufacturing process," the agency said. It sees the pre-tax margin to increase moderately to around 2 percent in FY19 and to recover gradually to 5-7 percent through to FY22.

Blaming the rising investment burdening the free cash flow, the report said the increased focus on EVs, autonomous driving and shared mobility is offsetting the gains from lower investments in other areas and cited the recently launched I-Pace as a drag on group profitability and cash generation. "Free cash flow fell significantly in FY18 to negative 4.2 percent and we expect a further decrease to around negative 6 percent in FY19. Higher spending during 2019-21 than in our previous assumptions will keep cash flows in the negative territory until at least 2020," it said.

The company has lined up a capex of around 4.5 billion pounds annually for the next many years.

On the impacts of Brexit, the report notes that the company sells about 20 percent of its vehicles in both continental Europe and the US, but builds them quasi-exclusively in Britain, making it particularly exposed to Brexit issues and risks related to potential increased global tariffs.

"New assembly plants in Slovakia and Brazil and the use of a subcontractor in Austria should somewhat ease the production imbalance in the medium term but it remains heavily at risk in the short-term. A disorderly Brexit may significantly disrupt its supply chain and ability to manufacture and then sell its vehicles, in turn putting additional pressure on earnings and cash generation compared with our current projections," it warned.

The company has a $500 million bond maturing in February 2023 with a 5.625 coupon, and a $700 million issue priced at 4.125 percent and maturing in December 2018, another 400 million pound priced at 5 percent in February 2022, another 400 milling pound (3.875 percent) note for March 2023, $500 million (4.25 percent) for November 2019; $500 million (3.5 percent) for March 2020; 300 million pound (2.75 percent) for January 2021.

It also has a 650 million euro issue priced at 2.2 percent maturing in January 2024, 300 million pound (2.75 percent) for January 2021; and $500 million (4.5 percent) not for October 2027, Fitch noted in the report.

Despite all this, JLR has a healthy liquidity which at end-June 2018 stood at 1.3 billion pounds, short-term liquidity deposits of 1.5 billion pounds, and committed undrawn facilities of 1.9 billion pounds maturing in 2022. Total reported debt at end-June 2018 was 3.9 billion pounds, including 0.7 billion pounds of short-term maturities.
According to Fitch's guidance material for investors:

'BB’ ratings indicate an elevated vulnerability to credit risk, particularly in the event of adverse changes in business or economic conditions over time; however, business or financial alternatives may be available to allow financial commitments to be met.
17MY DS150PS 6 speed manual. Gone. Not of satisfactory quality. Not as described.


NoDiscoSport
Posts: 472
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:57 am
Has thanked: 13 times
Been thanked: 26 times

Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by NoDiscoSport » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:57 pm

Following the Fitch downgrade Tata Motors stock (NYSE:TTM) is now being traded close to a seven year low at $16.41.

When Tata paid $2.3 billion for JLR on 2 June 2008 its share price in NY was around $13.50 and falling rapidly as a result of the financial crash of 2007-2008. After reaching a low of about $4 the stock then took just 6 years to peak above $50, due mainly to the success of the Range Rover Evoque. It's easy to see why some of the Indian investors are saying enough is enough,

Capture.PNG

17MY DS150PS 6 speed manual. Gone. Not of satisfactory quality. Not as described.


Post Reply

Return to “Off-Topic Chat”