Jaguar Land Rover posts huge financial loss

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JLR Appeal for Investment

Post by PhilMabbots17 » Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:27 am

For anyone with the stomach for a one hundred and eight-slide Powerpoint extravaganza, here's the 5th June 2019 Investor Presentation. Some interesting nuggets re future plans are buried away under literally acres of slide-ware, provided that you have the patience to look for them.

https://c.jcms-api.com/download/edaedff ... torday.pdf
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JLR Sales and other news

Post by PhilMabbots17 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:16 am

Business Today magazine reported 11 June 2019 that JLR announced a decline of 12.2% in year-on-year retail sales in May at 42,370 units, citing weak demand in China, "overseas markets" and Europe. This latest decline in JLR's fortunes follows falls of 8.2% in March and 13.3% in April due to buyer "sentiment" in China and "emission regulations". (What does that mean? Ed)

Official Press Release from JLR: JAGUAR LAND ROVER REPORTS MAY 2019 SALES

Meanwhile, ITV News Central (11 June 2019) says that Castle Bromwich workers are being asked for more flexibility and efficiency in the form of a 4-day week if the factory is to stand any chance of being considered for future investment. A ballot will take place this week.

On May 29 Bloomberg was forced to retract a story it had published questioning how JLR managed to suddenly locate an extra £500 million of cash in recently-published accounts. The original column had claimed that JLR used money from its "receivable facilities" in order to boost cash-flow - an allegation that could have meant spending time on the naughty chair if proven. Cash-flow is an extremely sensitive issue for JLR just now as it struggles to save £2.5 billion from Project Charge and (hopefully) stay afloat through these choppy waters. Jaguar Land Rover corporate affairs manager Lisa Palmer told iMediaEthics the company didn’t threaten any legal action over the column but it is satisfied with the retraction. Well that's all right then.

Finally, the new Defender was recently captured testing in Spain by a sharp-eyed lorry driver on a motorway somewhere near Barcelona (I think it's excellent that they now cover "safe mobile phone usage" in the ES Class 1 HGV test, don't you?). Coventry Live. It's not known if this particular Defender had actually broken down or whether they were sensibly conducting road tests to make sure that when it does, it can be securely mounted on a small flat-bed recovery rig. RACE website here with google translation: https://translate.google.com/translate? ... race.es%2F I'll bet this adverse-PR video gets deleted very soon at JLR's request so, for the record....

ES_1.PNG

Land Rover Numero Uno indeed!

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: JLR Sales and other news

Post by VeryDiscoSport » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:44 pm

PhilMabbots17 wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:16 am
I'll bet this adverse-PR video gets deleted very soon at JLR's request so, for the record....
Too late - it's already escaped into the wild.

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Pendragon Forecasting Loss for 2019

Post by PhilMabbots17 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:52 am

One of the UK's biggest motor retailers, Pendragon, has become the latest casualty of the reduced demand for cars. It's shares fell by 21% following a profits warning which was made after the new management team discovered it would be likely to lose money this year.

The company owns Evans Halshaw and Stratstone dealership brands, the latter specialising in luxury marques including Porshe and Aston Martin. Pendragon also has Jaguar and/or LR retail outlets trading as Stratstones in Aylesbury, Cardiff, Mayfair, Newport (Gwent), Nottingham, Stourbridge (closure announced this week), Swansea and Tottenham, London N22. Currently it has 105 used Discovery Sports for sale with a combined retail value of over £3 million. For buyers out hunting for diesel bargains who are not phased by 10% diesel dilution this might be a good place to go and make some silly offers on the outgoing model.

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Re: Pendragon Forecasting Loss for 2019

Post by DiscoSportDave » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:46 am

PhilMabbots17 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:52 am
One of the UK's biggest motor retailers, Pendragon, has become the latest casualty of the reduced demand for cars. It's shares fell by 21% following a profits warning which was made after the new management team discovered it would be likely to lose money this year.

The company owns Evans Halshaw and Stratstone dealership brands, the latter specialising in luxury marques including Porshe and Aston Martin. Pendragon also has Jaguar and/or LR retail outlets trading as Stratstones in Aylesbury, Cardiff, Mayfair, Newport (Gwent), Nottingham, Stourbridge (closure announced this week), Swansea and Tottenham, London N22. Currently it has 105 used Discovery Sports for sale with a combined retail value of over £3 million. For buyers out hunting for diesel bargains who are not phased by 10% diesel dilution this might be a good place to go and make some silly offers on the outgoing model.

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"JLR is NOT For Sale" - Speth

Post by PhilMabbots17 » Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:45 pm

A little flurry of JLR news in the last 24 hours, probably all inter-connected in some way.

Firstly, Speth announced that "JLR will not be sold to any manufacturer" (Autocar 20 June 2019}.

Meanwhile, over in India investors are expressing concern that "Jaguar Land Rover is dragging Tata Motors along in its downward spiral"
(Business Insider 21 June 2019)

Finally, and probably representing the root of all the kerfuffle, the news that "Moody’s downgrades Jaguar Land Rover as it battles China slowdown" (City AM 20 June 2019)

What does it mean? It means analysts think that the risk of JLR going tits up and defaulting on its Bond loans has increased by 41% from a Ba3-PD rating (10.7% chance) rating to B1-PD (15.2% chance). To a £5,000,000 per annum + bonuses CEO it's the equivalent of being told publicly that you are pretty crap at your job. Time to reach out to a tame journalist...
“Today it’s very simple. Jaguar Land Rover is not for sale,” Speth assured me over a World Car Awards lunch at Ashorne Hill, JLR’s country house and training centre.

Capture.PNG

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Re: Jaguar Land Rover posts huge financial loss

Post by DiscoDriver » Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:05 pm

PDRs are expressed using Moody's long-term rating scale usually based on a 1 year projection. It is a rating and not a percentage chance of default.

Ba3-PD
Obligations rated Ba are judged to be speculative and are subject to substantial credit risk.
3 means it is in the lower end of that rating category.
PD means Probability of Default


B1-PD
Obligations rated B are considered speculative and are subject to high credit risk.
1 means it is in the higher end of its generic rating category


So, no it isn't good... but I am not sure you can say the risk of defaulting has gone up 41%.

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Re: Jaguar Land Rover posts huge financial loss

Post by timhum » Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:30 pm

I guess PhilMabbots has a big short on Tata shares and is continuing to talk his position by continually posting negative JLR news ;)

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Re: Jaguar Land Rover posts huge financial loss

Post by Barnsh » Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:11 pm

Not sure about continually posting negative views.....

I find this thread very interesting as it it is factually based on current market data.

It is always good to know if you car manufacturer is going tits up or going to be bought over.
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Re: Jaguar Land Rover posts huge financial loss

Post by PhilMabbots17 » Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:33 am

Shorting stock is a bit rich for my tastes, I think someone might have been watching too much Billions. In any case, thanks to JLR's mis-management and lack of market foresight, the TTM stock is trading close to a 15-year low at just $11.34 at close of business today. How would anyone who didn't already hold positions make any money from that ?

Capture.PNG

Liquidity Profile

JLR's liquidity profile remains adequate notwithstanding the ongoing sizeable cash consumption. As of March 2019, the company had GBP3.8 billion of cash on the balance sheet and access to the fully undrawn and committed GBP1.9 billion revolving credit facility due July 2022 with no financial covenants. However, Moody's also expects the company to remain materially free cash flow negative in fiscal 2020 and 2021 while meaningful working capital volatility, particularly between Q4 (January to March) and Q1 (April to June) due to higher seasonal sales and manufacturing activity in Q4 require meaningful ongoing cash. While the company's debt maturity profile is generally well balanced, there are also two $500 million bonds becoming due in November 2019 and March 2020, respectively. The company has also announced that it is exploring further funding options.
Last year the price of JLR CDSs quadrupled which scared off the buyers of senior notes so instead they raised $1 billion in syndicated bank loans. £2,436 million of existing bond debts must be repaid from capital by March 2023 and there is another interesting little debt of circa £200 million that appears to represent "factoring" of discounted invoices within the group. Anyone that's had to resort to factoring in business will know what this means.
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