The death of diesel? Or the future?

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Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by BFGDSMan » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:44 am

Dashnine wrote:
Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:37 pm
I’ve been lurking on the Skoda Kodiaq forum. Cars are piling up in quarantine compounds as they don’t have WLTP certification for the particular engine / gearbox / option combination. Apparently options with major weight implications (pano roof, spare wheel, etc.) have to be tested independently!

Cars ordered in June are being quoted for January delivery even though they were built in August....

No wonder sales are down all over the place.
This is a pan VAG group problem. According to VAG (esp VW) have been so focused on un-fugging the emissions scandal (and let -go/sackedso many powertrain engineers) they have "struggled" preparing for WLTP. It has been reported in the German Press that since July that VW has been build WLTP compliant Golfs but because they have not completed formal certification they cannot be sold. VW has leased several old runways and parked up brand (customer) new cars pending approval for sale (and even the new uncompleted airport in Berlin has 10,000 cars parked up on it). Last I read was that July deliveries would take place earliest Oct this year and that VW had set aside €1Bn to cover the cost of this farce. Currently there are no deliveries of Golf/Tiguan and Polo variants! It is anticipated that between 200,000 and 250,000 vehicles will be delayed :o :o

A work colleague has just had his order cancelled by VW for a Tiguan diesel as his June build slot had been pushed back to "atleast Nov" for an R Line Petrol! In Germany the problem has also been compounded by massive demand as VW had been running its own diesel scrappage scheme.

Follow this link to see some Images about the scope of the problem/solution:

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=vw+pa ... KJAwxa1xiM:

And don't forget the 100,000s of diesel powered VW's parked up in the US awaiting rectification (and re-certification) or scrapping.

The VW story is ridiculous as manufacturers have known this new standard was coming for years, but it has also caught out the likes of BMW and Porche as they have chosen to drop a a number variants rather than re-test. I have to say JLR do seem to be reasonably on the ball about WLTP compliance (which is a good thing) and for Merc have had all cars made since either June 1st or July 1st Euro 6d TEMP compliant (which is good for me :D ).

You are right about individual cars being tested dependant upon option combo's. My wifes Merc arrived with 50 miles on it, as it was re-checked after production due to it being a "heavy" spec, and mine was held at the factory for two weeks before release for the same reason. Also cars are now pulled at random from production lines and checked for compliance.
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September - Great month for Jaguar

Post by NoDiscoSport » Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:53 am

NoDiscoSport wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:07 pm
German car sales 30% down in September. VW outsold by BMW, Mercedes & Opel. Diesel accounts for only 3 cars out of every 10 sold...

https://www.afp.com/en/news/2265/new-em ... oc-19p37h1

Elsewhere, IItaly down 25%, Spain down 17%... SMMT still to announce.
UK as a whole was down by 20% - as expected - but Jaguar actually increased its sales by 20% versus last year, while the reduction at LR was kept to 11% increasing its market share marginally to almost 4%. Model by model breakdown for Europe will be available at the end of this month.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/
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2 Week Shutdown at Solihull

Post by NoDiscoSport » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:57 pm

Jaguar Land Rover announces two-week shutdown at Solihull plant

As previously noted, September was a pretty good month all round for Jaguar.

Unfortunately, Land Rover could only post sales of 37,968 units in the month, down 18.8 percent, which dragged JLR's total global sales down by 12.3% to 57,114. JLR Chief Commercial Officer Felix Brautigam said, "As a business we are continuing to experience challenging conditions in some of our key markets,"

The shutdown at Solihull was reported today by the Express & Star.
[The shutdown] comes in the wake of a three-day week for 2,000 workers at its Jaguar plant in Castle Bromwich, running until Christmas, and the axing of 1,000 agency workers earlier this year. The Wolverhampton engine factory on the i54 site, employing around 1,800 people, is not affected. Solilhull is JLR's biggest single factory, making the firm's best-selling Range Rovers and Jaguar F-Pace cars. Around 9,000 people work across the 300-acre site. The shut-down will start on Monday, October 22.

In a statement today a Jaguar Land Rover spokesperson said: "As part of the company’s continued strategy for profitable growth, Jaguar Land Rover is focused on achieving operational efficiencies and will align supply to reflect fluctuating demand globally as required. "The decision to introduce a two week shutdown period later this month at Solihull is one example of actions we are taking to achieve this. Customer orders in the system will not be impacted and employees affected will be paid for the duration of the shutdown."

It comes as the company revealed yet another sales drop in what has been a year of woe. September saw sales of 57,114 vehicles around the world, down 12.3 per cent on the same month last year, despite a strong performance from the Range Rover Velar and Jaguar E-Pace and electric I-Pace. The biggest blow came from its major Chinese market, down more than 46 per cent, blamed on 'ongoing market uncertainty' from import duty changes and trade tension with the USA. Sales also dipped in the UK, Europe and North America, with older models such as the Range Rover Evoque and the Land Rover Discover Sport both suffering.
Consolidated JLR Sales September 2018
septemberannouncementforwebupload.xlsx
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Financial Markets had sight of the numbers last week. This is the current state of play.

TTM 20181008.PNG

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Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by Barnsh » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:04 pm

Blame Brexit even though sales currently, have nothing to do with sales figures after Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45785229
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Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by NoDiscoSport » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:48 pm

More at the Birmingham Mail

DHL Statement to workers.

JLR have just carrried out a brief to all their staff, and subsequently advised DHL, that they have experienced poor sales during September. This has resulted in 25,000 cars being held at sales centres waiting to be sold. This ties up cash in their business and while production continues this position gets worse. JLR have therefore taken the decision to freeze production at Solihul for a period of 2 weeks from Monday 22nd October to Sunday 4th November 2018.


Comments on the Birmingham Mail web site:
Brexit
What if they don’t have banked hours or can’t commit to make it up ?
Nothing to do with Brexit - to do with the government stabbing drivers and the industry in the back over diesel cars - cars government policy encouraged. Plus, cars over £40,000 attract a £310 VED supplement for 5 years, which obviously affects expensive cars like Jaguars and Land Rovers.
It’s nothing to do with Brexit deal or no deal . JLR simply are experiencing poor sales and looking at cutting their costs.
Build better cars that don’t breakdown or and slash the price. They're charging around 20k too much
JLR sales suffer after overpriced mediocre cars don't sell as well as expected. Senior executives blame Brexit.
Brexit nothing to do with it ... blame management investing hundred of millions of pounds on diesel cars when the government are penalising diesel drivers"
JLR are playing games with the government over Brexit. A few weeks ago they announced a massive recruitment drive and another investment in facilities next to the M54.
Jump on the Brexit bandwagon. It’s because over produced cars and the falling sales of diesel.
Can't blame Brexit on a 46% reduction in sales to China!
A lot of wisdom there.
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Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by PhilMabbots17 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:31 am

I saw an amazing report today suggesting that the Jaguar part of JLR could become exclusively an EV supplier. Apparently the senior staff are looking at this as a serious proposition for all the existing models as they come up for replacement. Surely it would be madness for them to imagine that they can solve all the problems caused by over-exposure to diesel by morphing the entire Marque to a different type of product. Do they expect EV prices to come down to what E-Pace and XE customers are prepared to pay? Stop it JLR, this is the drugs kicking in.

Meanwhile another report, this time by Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, mirroring other analysts, indicates a 35% and 13% cut in Tata's earnings estimates for FY19 and FY20, respectively. This was prior to the news of the JLR Solihull plant shutdown. Details in this srticle from Livemint
There’s little hope for Tata Motors with JLR in dire straits
How long it would be before Tata Motors and the stock recoup their losses is anybody’s guess
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Tata CFO: Shareholder concerns "must be addressed fast"

Post by PhilMabbots17 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:06 am

JLR loses operating leverage over China sales, Brexit
JLR woes have raised concerns among investors and shareholders about how Tata Motors shares will fare going forward and the automaker’s ability to continue paying dividends

LiveMint 15th October 2018

Mumbai: Tata Motors Ltd believes its money-spinner Jaguar Land Rover Plc (JLR) has lost operating leverage amid lower sales in China and Brexit, said a top executive at the Mumbai-based auto maker. The woes at the UK-based unit have raised concerns among investors and shareholders about how Tata Motors shares will fare going forward and the auto maker’s ability to continue paying dividends, said P.B. Balaji, Tata Motors’ chief financial officer.

Declining sales of diesel vehicles, Brexit concerns, tariffs and the need for high investments in the face of the technology disruption happening in the auto industry are among the big challenges that British luxury marques are facing, Balaji told Tata Review, an internal company magazine that comes out every quarter. Mint has a copy of the magazine. “These are compounded by internal cost challenges. The teams are facing a new normal — of lower growths with higher capex needs — and are working actively to reduce costs and improve cash flows,” Balaji said.

JLR’s retail sales fell 12% from the year earlier in September, accelerating the fall over the last three months. The China market continues to be unsettled following “tariff changes and trade tensions” that led to a 46% drop in retail sales in the key market. Sales in the UK and Germany fell 20% and 31% respectively due to reduced diesel demand, while US sales, which were growing so far, also declined 5.5% last month. Then, there are execution challenges, said Balaji, adding in the last 12 months, JLR sales grew 2%, a drop from an average of 20-25% in previous years. “The business has lost operating leverage over the last few years...,” he said. “The shareholders are concerned about the share price performance and the lack of dividend payments. It is imperative that we address these concerns fast,” Balaji said.

Trouble at JLR started about two years ago with currency woes, following Brexit. Profitability was impacted, compounded by falling sales due to makeovers and new model introduction. And now, macroeconomic issues such as the US-China trade war and the global drive towards lower carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles have led to a slump in sales of luxury diesel cars.

The state of affairs at JLR casts a shadow on a quick turnaround for the domestic business of Tata Motors as a whole. The firm posted a consolidated loss in the June quarter, which is likely to deepen in the September quarter. To be sure, the standalone commercial vehicle and passenger car business is on the upswing but Balaji prefers to remain conservative. “The domestic business has had a good run, but we cannot get complacent; we should not forget we are in a cyclical industry. We need to regain our lost shares. We need to deliver cash break-evens in our PV business...,” he said.

For Balaji, the primary concerns are China, where JLR models earlier sold like hot cakes. “These form the largest component of our stock price. China in particular is critical for us as it contributes disproportionately to our profitability.” Shares of Tata Motors have fallen more than 60% so far this year. They closed 0.36% higher on BSE on Friday at ₹183.40 apiece (TTM closed Friday at $12.37 on the NYSE)

Also read | Tata Motors investors paying the price for China car sales slump
Also read | There’s little hope for Tata Motors with JLR in dire straits
I recently spoke to a golfing buddy at a prominent merchant bank who told me that JLR's recent performance is one of Tata investors' main concerns. The idea of permitting Speth to spend billions of borrowed dollars on new product developments while simultaneously trying to reduce costs to stay afloat now keeps the oil burning well into the Mumbai night. Chippy, if you're still watching, this is going just as you predicted.
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Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by Badgerface » Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:59 am

There was talk as far back as 2012 at Halewood that should they lose the Chinese and Russian marketplace, the whole deck of cards would inevitably collapse. This was at a time that 83% of Evoque/Freelander 2 sales were exported, predominantly to those markets.

The continued bullshit about Brexit is an irrelevance - the bottom line is that diesel demonisation (read: meddling by the Libtard green Left) has hit all manufacturers, because Joe public and fleet buyers are not being told the truth by respective governments, and are hanging on to their vehicles for longer. Even JLR, whose MCP vehicles were rotated every 6 months/9000 miles have employees rattling around in 17 plate versions still, rather than fresh 68 plates. It's hit everyone, and all in the name of raising taxes. Brexit is just a corporate lie/excuse peddled by companies with poor sales out, and not just used by the motor industry.

British management at its finest yet again......
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Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by PhilMabbots17 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:13 pm

The Times of India has an extremely interesting story this morning regarding JLR borrowing plans. Apparently JLR is now looking to borrow $1,000,000,000 in the offshore loan market to help finance the capital expenditure plan.
Half a dozen banks, including Standard Chartered, BNP, Axis Bank, and Credit Agricole, are helping the company raise the six-year maturity loan, sources said. Individual banks could not be contacted immediately for comments.

The loan could be priced after adding 150-170 basis points over the six-month dollar-denominated LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate), which is now at 2.28 per cent. The gauge climbed more than 100 basis points in the past one year.

“…JLR has successfully arranged US $1billion of syndicated loans through our relationship banks in the last few weeks…,” a Tata Motors spokesperson said, confirming the fund raising.
This could mean that the bond road-show hasn't produced the goods and they've turned to off-shore loans to fill in the shortfall. One thing is sure: judging by the links below this company is hard at work looking for cash:

More information:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 210650.cms
https://www.jaguarlandrover.com/2016/investor-relations
https://www.jaguarlandrover.com/news/20 ... s-offering
https://www.jaguarlandrover.com/news/20 ... s-offering
Bonds & Bank Loans.pdf
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Re: The death of diesel? Or the future?

Post by NoDiscoSport » Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:38 pm

Does anyone know why the price of diesel should suddenly have started to edge up? Around Hampshire it was mostly hovering at 3 or 4 pence more than petrol, but recently I have seen the difference increase quite a bit - yesterday at a BP on the A27 it was 138.9 vs 130.9 for gas. Have the refineries already switched production in the expectation of lower demand for diesel, I wonder, or is there another factor? RAC fuel fact sheet shows a small trending divergence.

Also on fuel, petrol owners might be interested by my experience with Tesco Momentum 99 Octane which is priced at a fairly reasonable 134.9 near me. I just squeezed 53.5 (indicated) 52.0 (brim-to-brim/odometer verified) MPG out of my "self-charging" hybrid Toyota, giving it a range to empty of 640 miles. This performance works out about 4% better than BP 97, which is another 3 pence more. Clearly this should be disregarded by anyone who subscribes to the "don't touch supermarket petrol under any circumstances" school of thought. ;)

RACF_fuel_fact_sheet.pdf
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